The full impact of COVID-19 on the mid-market is finally revealed
The launch of Grant Thornton’s new index into the health of mid-sized companies comes at the most difficult time in a generation for these companies. Our H1 2020 Global business pulse finds that the index has plunged by 12.8 points to a score of minus 9.4.
This is the first time in a decade of comparable results that the index has turned negative and reflects the blow that Coronavirus has delivered to business outlooks and operating environments, not to mention human lives. The index results for every region, every sector (bar one) and 26 of the 29 monitored countries also come out negative in H1 2020. The impact has been wide but maybe not as deep as anticipated.
For reference, a score of +50 would represent perfect health with no restrictions and an ideal outlook, and the likelihood of high growth in the future. A score of -50 would represent dire health, with crushing restrictions and an appalling outlook, and the likelihood of decline in the future.
The index score of -9.4 shows the significant impact of the pandemic and is by any measure bad. However, the depth of the fall might have been a lot worse given the circumstances. Indeed the results were a surprise to the experts who work on the index.
Francesca Lagerberg, Global leader – network capabilities at Grant Thornton International Ltd, said: “With the collapse in economic activity amid Coronavirus, we expected a more significant deterioration in the results However the index in some ways reinforces what we’re seeing on the ground. When I talk to mid-market businesses around the world, most say they are trading more effectively than they had imagined, handling cash flow very well and looking after their people first. They are showing real resilience and this is hugely encouraging.”
Oxford Economics, our research partners and developers of the Global business pulse agree. Adrian Cooper, CEO of Oxford Economics said: “Reviewing the index, when you consider the severity of the current downturn as large swathes of the global economy were shut down, the impact – whilst sharp — doesn’t appear to have cut these businesses as deeply as we might anticipate given other economic and survey data.”
The research for the index was conducted in May and June and so spans a range of stages, from shutdowns to easing restrictions around the world. As such it is a valuable snapshot amid an evolving situation and one that will play out over some time to come. “We will eagerly be looking to the next results to give us a better sense of whether the mid-market is holding up as well as we hope,” comments Francesca.
Please take a look at our methodology section if you’d like further details about the nature of the index before reading further.