Economic Newsletter October
The slowdown seen so far in 2018 is likely to be temporary
Despite all the noise (Italy, Trump’s trade policy, emerging markets, etc.), the global economy’s reflation process continues and will become more and more evident. Long-term interest rates are therefore going to have to move upwards significantly. In terms of other issues, although we still think that the tightening of global financial conditions can take place in an orderly manner, the fact that overheating risks in the US continue to edge up increases the likelihood that we will experience volatility in the markets.